MJ's Oscar Picks 2025: The Wildfire Edition

Based on last year's response to "I'm Just Ken," I'm following up with another Oscar-related parody. Not one of this year's Original Song nominees, but a familiar tune, nonetheless.

Please press "Play" and (if you're up for it) sing along!

Oscars

0:00

Hopin’ For a Win

(w/Apologies to Bob Dylan)

How many films must an actor make before you call him a star?

Yes, and how many smiles can celebrities fake before we see who they are? 

How many ways do you measure success before they raise up the bar?

[Refrain]

The answer, my friend, they're hopin' for a win.

The answer: they're hopin’ for a win.

How many flops can an actor endure before they’re demoralized?

Yes, and how many ways can an actor sell out before they feel compromised?

How many times must an actor get snubbed before they are recognized?

[Refrain]

The answer, my friend, they're hopin' for a win.

The answer: they're hopin’ for a win.

How many ways can an actor reveal the things that they want you to see?

Yes, and how many times will an actor look up to find their hope and their dreams?

How many ways must an actor express they’re not who you want them to be?

[Refrain]

The answer, my friend, they're hopin' for a win.

The answer: they're hopin’ for a win.

And that answer still is blowin' in the wind.

The answer's still blowin' in the wind.*

*******

What the fuck is a movie now?

Something that plays in theaters for a token release of four fucking weeks?

...and by the second week you can watch it on [your] TV?

I didn't get into all of this for diminishing returns...

[Since] 2020... It's gotten drastically worse.

- Director Quentin Tarantino

You didn't believe me last year when I warned I was just getting warmed up after my rant about how Barbie exemplified the constant challenges and inherent contradictions being a woman, and then explained in painful detail how I could relate?

Fear not. It's a new year with lots more new (and ongoing) cinematic controversies, so when a former student shared Tarantino's quote (Thanks, Dan Skillman... and, yes, it's grand when students stay in touch), I felt another diatribe is imminent, kind of like Margaret Qualley emerging from Demi Moore in this year's "body horror" flick (Is there a scarier kind?), The Substance.

Well, sort of. In a year that did not see a repeat of 2023's Barbenheimer phenomenon - sorry, but, no, the pre-emptive "Glicked" didn't even come close - people mostly went to the theater to see animation and special effects and stayed home for the substance.

Tarantino's are strong words, for sure. But true, especially if you are a real cinephile, and by that I mean someone who not only appreciates the art of cinema, but one who will get the fuck out of their house and go to a theater to see one.

Not that I don't understand that streaming has made it more convenient to stay home and watch movies from the comfort of the couch, making movies more accessible to those with health-related issues or post-Covid concerns who might otherwise find going to a theater difficult. Still, a 70-inch big screen TV is not the same as the silver screen, and artists like Tarantino make films for the theater experience. No matter how much someone might tell me that it's the same watching a movie at home as it is in the multiplex, I know differently. It's not.

Beyond the art of filmmaking itself (re: size and scope of the experience), there is something about the whole ritual of going to the theater: from buying your tickets (now, in some cases, with individual seat selection), getting your snacks, waiting for the lights to dim, watching trailers for coming attractions, and then settling in to the feature that can't be replicated at home, no matter how grand your living room or how large your smart TV.

This year, only half the Best Picture nominees opened to wide theatrical release: Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part II, The Substance and Wicked. Of those, Dune: Part II and Wicked are the two nominees that qualify as "big budget" pictures, with Dune's cost a reported $190M and Wicked's between $145 and $150M (though there is some uncertainty about the actual cost, given that the movie began as one film and was then broken into two mid-production). Both movies made the Top Ten highest grossing list for 2024, with Wicked coming in at #3 and Dune at #7. Animated fare like Inside Out 2, Moana 2 and superhero action comedies like Deadpool outpaced both of them.

I'll comment on the recent assertion that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) is out of touch with public interest in a moment, but first let's take a look at the other five Best Picture noms and see how they were distributed:

The Brutalist - released in theaters in mid-January with theatrical run extended after its Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture Drama. Anora, Emilia Pérez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys were all in very limited theatrical release (re: 2 weeks), with Emilia Pérez available on Netflix since mid-November. Conclave and The Substance, that were released early in the fall are already streaming, as are other non-Best Picture nominees like A Real Pain.

Four years ago, I was grateful to be able to watch all the Oscar nominees at home because the pandemic had closed theaters, but we're now in a post-pandemic age, and Hollywood still hasn't recovered from the public's retreat to home viewing. The Tom Cruise's of the world - who single-handedly enticed audiences back to the theater for films like Top Gun: Maverick are getting older, and I'm not convinced that Millennials, Gen Z and Gen Alpha are sufficiently invested in the art of cinema to carry its light into a new age of moviegoing.

In addition, there's the increasing presence and use of technology and social media to influence not only how movies are made, but how people watch them, and - even more frightening - how people feel about the actors' performances based mostly on random tweets. Thank you, Christopher Walken, for saying you don't have a cell phone and have never "twittered." It's "tweeted," Christopher. God, he's old and out of touch. Must not be much of an actor.

To a generation that can access films on their smart phone, why go to a theater? To them, movies are just another video game, and many films attempt to replicate the visuals and animation found in online games like "Forge of Empires," "Elvenar," or "Game of Thrones" (I had to look the first two up).

Every single one of the top ten grossing movies for 2024 touted heavy use of special effects and CGI. Even Brady Corbet, co-writer/director of The Brutalist, an otherwise conventional fictionalized biopic of a Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor, admitted to using AI to enhance lead actor Adrien Brody's and co-star Felicity Jones's Hungarian accents to sound more authentic.

Yikes! That latest admission is one of reasons SAG-AFTRA went on strike in 2023: actors' fears that their images and voices would be AI-generated and used without their permission. Granted, Brody and Jones both confirmed that they gave Corbet permission to alter their voices, but knowing that what we see on screen is not completely real in terms of an actor's ability to capture a character, gives one pause about what's next in cinematic manipulation. Joke all you want (as many did) about Meryl Streep's vast repertoire of accents, but at least the result was all Meryl and not computer-induced.

And then there's the presence of social media (and its influencers), spreading rumors about actors and filmmakers, creating false narratives in the hoping of deterring AMPAS members from voting for particular nominees. Last year, Bradley Cooper's masterful Maestro, another victim of the two-week theatrical-straight-to-streaming release mode, was also plagued by social media attacks of anti-semitism because Cooper wore a prosthetic nose to better resemble Leonard Bernstein. Bernstein's children were open about their knowledge and approval of Cooper's artistic vision, including the enhanced proboscis, but the damage was done, and Maestro dropped quickly from serious contention, even though it eventually boasted seven Oscar nominations.

This year, Emilia Pérez has been plagued by accusations of trivializing missing persons in Mexico through a Change.org petition. Petitioners argue that the movie is insensitive toward Mexicans in its portrayal of a drug lord who secretly transitions and then returns to reclaim her family. Another sore point stems from filming: a Spanish language movie, Emilia Pérez was filmed on a soundstage in France, primarily for budgetary and artistic reasons, explained by writer-director Jacques Audiard.

To date, lingering anger, reportedly from Mexican audiences, about Audiard, the film, and its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, persist, most recently with the resurfacing of old tweets Gascón made that appear to express anti-Islamic sentiments. Gascón has apologized repeatedly, and has of attempted to explain then as some of the tweets were taken out of context or shortened to misrepresent what was posted. She voluntarily appeared on CNN to address the accusations, but her tearful interview only seemed to trigger more anger on social media. As a result, the movie's early, favorable odds to win big on Oscar night have continued to plummet, with Gascón's image now almost invisible from the movie's marketing campaign.

In addition, cast members, including co-star Zoe Saldaña (who continues to be the frontrunner for Supporting Actress), and director Audiard, have distanced themselves from Gascón, who removed herself from scheduled appearances at the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Awards so as not to impact negatively the movie's chances of winning the big prizes yet to come. It's been horribly disheartening to watch the not so subtle, public alienation of an artist now perceived to be politically incongruous with the essential values she seemingly stands for: inclusion, acceptance, compassion. Has anyone considered Gascón's own struggle as a transgender artist?

Please understand: In no way would I or do I support insensitive, racist, anti-Muslim/anti-Semitic, anti-gay - or any other egregious expressions of biased - statements. We get enough of those from the White House on a daily basis. However, there is growing evidence that Gascón's statements were edited, that her X account was hacked, and (most recently) that she may have been targeted by other nominees (re: Ariana Grande) hoping to derail her accelerating Oscar campaign. Grande, a child star and contemporary rival of Selena Gomez (who has also been recognized for her work on Emilia), reportedly planned to squelch any Oscar plans Gomez might have had if she received a supporting actress nomination.

When Gomez did not nab an Oscar nom, Grande's camp reportedly turned its efforts toward defaming Gascón, who seemed more vulnerable than co-star Saldaña. It's a petty, convoluted mess, for sure, but one which fits perfectly with Hollywood's reputation for practicing unwarranted ruthlessness in order to get ahead.

After Emilia Pérez's multiple Globe wins and Gascón's powerful, impassioned acceptance speech that culminated in her now iconic pronouncement, "I am who I am, not who you want me to be," the timing of old, resurfaced tweets seems deliberate and intended to destroy the rise of an artistic pioneer whose story was being embraced and seen. Like Saldaña, I'm still processing all of this and hoping that someday we'll find the truth in what actually happened.

But Emilia Pérez wasn't the only movie plagued by controversy. There were others. Anora was recently dinged because there was no intimacy coordinator on set, a now fairly standard movie production support addition, partly a result of the #MeToo movement, an attempt to ensure that inappropriate sexual behavior is not part of movie making.

Given the amount of nudity and sex scenes in Anora, it seems like a glaring oversight, not to mention a careless decision, not to have had an intimacy coordinator on set. Even daytime dramas now require them. Between an absent intimacy coordinator, AI generated accents, and charges of racist tweets, three of the Best Picture nominees may have difficulty closing the deal on Oscar night.

NY Times film critic and commentator, Kyle Buchman recently observed, "Now, Oscar season has become a decentralized free-for-all where social-media sleuths and determined fan armies dig up past gaffes, bad tweets and damaging clips, then amplify them on X, TikTok and awards-adjacent subreddits."

Buchanan's comments are on the mark, as are those of Karla Sofia Gascón, who remains the most volatile center of controversy, "It's always the same story of these same people trying to find a new victim to generate more hate. It's a constant element in human history. Before, it was people of color or women or workers. Now, it's trans people. And even me, maybe without even knowing it, I have some prejudice or I criticize some communities because we all do."

True enough, but that type of self-awareness doesn't always get heard by those looking for an easy scapegoat. Let's not forget: We live in a world where tweets and TikTok posts have replaced real news and documented information. It's become kind of a "throw the rock and run" environment where no one is accountable for the truth, where lives and reputations can be ruined with one click or swipe. Heck, even POTUS openly lies, ignores evidence, creates incoherent narratives and then puts his own spin on the absurdity. And people believe it.

Is it possible that political motivation is driving the recent rumors about cast and crew from Emilia Pérez to sabotage a Best Picture (and more) win? You betcha. Given the new administration's stance on all things DEI, including an aversion to LGBTQ+ issues, a transgender mob musical in the Spanish language doesn't quite fit MAGA's notion of what constitutes American ideals. Timing is everything, and it's just curious that all these negative concerns and outrages about a movie that debuted almost a year ago at Cannes are coming out now, in the days immediately after the film scored a near-record thirteen Oscar nominations... and its momentum was surging.

In many ways, social media is redefining the politics of Oscar, which used to be centered more on how popular an actor or artist was within the movie industry, which studio produced the best film, etc. Now everything from the nominees' clothing choices to their X presence plays a role in whether they'll take home the golden statuette.

Back in the 1950s, Charlie Chaplin was deported for his controversial (re: left-wing) politics, not returning to the United States until 1972 when the Academy honored him with a special Lifetime Achievement Award. He died shortly after.

In 2018, Best Actor nominee Timothée Chalamet denounced director Woody Allen, with whom he'd worked on A Rainy Day in New York, citing allegations that Allen had sexually abused his adopted daughter Dylan. In protest, Chalamet donated his salary from the film to the #MeToo movement. Later, he admitted that he only did so because he manager told him denouncing Allen would increase his chances of a win. That year, actor Gary Oldman won Best Actor amidst his own personal tsunami: accusations of violence against women.

I don't mean to sound cynical, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to assess movies for their artistic and cinematic value alone, without acknowledging their box office draw, social media presence, and technological appeal. Only two of this year's Best Picture nominees landed among the biggest grossing movies of 2024, which doesn't necessarily mean Hollywood is out of touch with American interest, unless we equate box office receipts with artistic quality. Even though Hollywood is an industry focused on making money, movies remain an undeniably powerful art form, and artists aren't required to pander to public interest.

Best Picture nominees ranged in theme and topics from ecclesiastical espionage (Conclave) to futuristic imperialism (Dune) to 1960s racism (Nickel Boys) and the psycho-social oppression of women aging (The Substance). We saw the struggles of a Holocaust survivor (The Brutalist), a woman's determination to reinvent herself to save her family during a military coup in 1970s Brazil (I'm Still Here), an examination of good and evil (Wicked), and the elusive nature of the artist (A Complete Unknown). Plus, the first transgender mob musical that is as edgy as it is heartbreaking (Emilia Pérez ), and, finally, a the darker side of the rom-com moon (Anora).

No fluff here. Timely topics. Provocative perspectives. Innovative cinema. Maybe it isn't always necessary to be "popular" (if you groaned at that one, I'm smiling). Like every other art form, film needs constant tending, openness to new ideas, inclusive storytelling. Like a good liberal arts education, movies should challenge your comfort zone and force you to think about what you believe, so keep making the kinds of movies represented by this year's nominees, Hollywood. Sometimes movies should shake you to your core, or open up new avenues of thought and inspiration, and encourage you to consider viewpoints other than your own.

Individually and collectively, that's what this year's nominees did for me, though some more than others: provoke thought and provide inspiration. I'll elaborate in the Best Picture section. In any case, politics of one sort or another, today with the added layer of social media and CGI/AI, have always been part of the Oscars. Today, in a precariously politicized world, artistic freedom and the ability to express divergent points of view, are increasingly in jeopardy.

Even my blog platform now boasts (and suggests I use) "Content AI" and "AI Tools" tabs in case I need help with my posts (re: let's keep everything bland and neutral). The day I need vocab or grammar assistance is the day I shut down my blog. Ugh.

That said, you may not like my progressively pointed, sometimes sardonic, hopefully mature and seasoned (to some of you, that means traditional and old) view of all things cinematic, but in response, I will turn once again to the wisdom of Bob Dylan:

Don't ask me nothing from nothing. I just might tell you the truth.

Enough about me and such, for now.

On to the movies…

*******

Looking at this year's best, there some of the common threads that bind them: themes about family and relationships, biological and otherwise, dominate all ten Best Picture nominees, in one way or another. Whether it's the small, intimate connection between two cousins (A Real Pain), the delicate, sometimes tense, balance of friendship between woman (Wicked, The Substance), or broader, fractured fraternity among Roman Catholic Clergy (Conclave), this year's best movies have mostly moved away from big budget spectacles and honed in more on interpersonal cracks and connections found across societal and cultural lines.

As in recent years, I’ll embed most of the “oversights” (snubs?) with my final predictions on who will win an Oscar, who should win, and who surprised us into their respective categories, and I'll try to be judicious in my level of whining about, let’s say, A Real Pain's omission for Best Picture. Nothing as egregious as last year's SNUB of Greta Gerwig in the directing category for Barbie, but some curious choices in a few places.

And, for the record: No. Denzel Washington was not snubbed in the Supporting Actor category for Gladiator II. Even Gladiator star ( and Best Actor winner for the first installment ) Russell Crowe said that the scripts for both movies are "crap," and it's only a great actor that makes something out of the rubble. Arrogant on Crowe's part? Maybe, but also applicable in terms of Washington's ability to make something out of nothing, so much so that he has already been recognized for G2 in numerous film circles. Just not Oscar.

Besides, look what he did for Training Day, a mediocre cop flick, for which he took home the Best Actor Oscar in 2002. Washington is one of the greatest actors of his - or any - generation, but he's not a magician, and this year's supporting actor nominees are formidable and simply in better films, though one could argue that Jeremy Strong's nom for The Apprentice - and Sebastian Stan's for Best Actor in the same film - are more reactions to #47's re-election and probably represent a faction of Hollywood's opposition to his victory rather than an affirmation of great acting.

Politics again.

Two artists who were undeservedly overlooked were Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Best Actress in Hard Truths and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Best Supporting Actress for Nickel Boys. But then they're both black woman over fifty. Think about that one.

Politics...and then some.

What follows is my annual assessment of the Oscar nominees, my picks for the winners (and sometimes, my wish for who would win). Last year was a pretty good one for me, predictions-wise, and this year there may be more than one "lock" (more on that later). Putting my predictive accuracy ( 96+% - I did good last year! ) on the line again, here goes.

And the envelope, please….

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I'm Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

As I indicated earlier, there was no equivalent of last year's Barbenheimer phenomenon, no double whammy of a box office duo that dominated 2024, despite marketing attempts to create one with the simultaneous release of Wicked and Gladiator II right before Thanksgiving. That's the thing about Hollywood ( and life? ): you can plan things down to the tiniest detail and not necessarily get the desired result, though Marvel Comics creators can't seem to grasp that concept yet. Guess their standard $3.5 billion in box office grosses is better than nothing.

A double win at both the Directors Guild (DGA) and Producers Guild Awards (PGAP has historically been a strong indicator of Best Picture Oscar success. Since 1994, only six films have lost best picture at the Oscars after securing both DGA and PGA prizes: Apollo 13 (1995), Saving Private Ryan (1998), Brokeback Mountain (2005), Gravity (2013), La La Land (2016) and 1917 (2019). That means that Anora, winner of both the DGA and PGA awards this year, has a leg up right now on previous frontrunners Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, both of whom won a Golden Globe.

Only two films this year have received nominations from all five major industry groups — the PGA, DGA, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild of America (WGA) and British Academy of Film Awards (BAFTA): Anora and A Complete Unknown. Right now, the Bob Dylan-centered film is running fourth among Oscar odds, after Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave.

Several weeks ago, Variety reported that "the only scenario that could lead to a true “flip-a-coin” best picture showdown would be if the same film wins at both of the upcoming BAFTA and SAG ceremonies." Well, that's happened as Conclave won Best Picture at the BAFTA's and Best Ensemble (the equivalent of Best Picture) at the SAG awards. The perfect storm is brewing.

Conclave has taken the majority of "ensemble" prizes throughout the season, including the Critics Choice Awards. But here’s the rub: since the Academy expanded best picture nominations in 2009, CCA and SAG winners have only matched seven times. Could this year be the eighth?

Berger’s omission from the director Oscar lineup is a critical miss. However, that didn’t stop Ben Affleck’s Argo (2013), Peter Farrelly’s Green Book (2018), or Sian Heder’s CODA (2021) from winning Best Picture— but each of those films won at least one of the PGA or SAG Awards. And I would argue that none of those three Best Picture winners was even close to the best film in those years. They were boosted by aggressive marketing campaigns.

And none of those three compare to Conclave which is, arguably, the most traditional Best Picture nominee, but a worthy one in all ways that we consider a "best" picture: big themes, grand filmmaking, great performances and a riveting script. Conclave won the BAFTA, which could signal something more on Oscar night, given that the Brits make up the largest contingent among AMPAS members, after the United States.

Here's the thing: 2024 produced eight out of ten Best Pictures nominees with modest to respectable box office returns and, together with Emilia Pérez's thirteen Oscar nominations (a new record for an international film), a fairly balanced distribution of recognition among the rest: The Brutalist and Wicked have ten noms, A Complete Unknown and Conclave have eight, Anora six, Dune: Part Two and The Substance have five. I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys have three and two, respectively.

With the likelihood of a sweep for Emilia Pérez fading amidst the blatant smear campaign against its production and its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, it's anybody's guess what the final envelopes will reveal. It's perfectly plausible now that, Saldaña wins for supporting actress, Clément Ducol and Camille win Best Original Song for "El Mal," and the movie wins Best International Picture, with Brady Corbet taking Best Director for The Brutalist which will then win Best Picture. Demi Moore is still the odds-on favorite to take Best Actress for The Substance, and the movie's grisly visuals depicting a woman's aging make it a good bet to win Makeup and Hair Design. Kieran Culkin is the only sure thing in the acting categories and should take the trophy for supporting actor. Anora and Conclave could receive the writing awards for Original and Adapted Screenplay, respectively, and Wicked and Dune will likely clean up some of the technical awards like Costume and Production Design and Visual Effects.

That leaves A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys and I'm Still Here up in the air. If A Complete Unknown wins anything, it will be a Timothée Chalamet upset in the Best Actor category over Adrien Brody. Nickel Boys hasn't generated much except critical praise and, with no acting nominations, and limited theatrical release, destined to go home empty-handed. Ditto for I'm Still Here, a Brazilian political drama whose nominations have materialized mostly from beloved actress Fernanda Torres' presence. It's a very good, but low-key film that has probably stretched its worth as a Best Picture nominee. In another year, it might have been a stronger contender for Best International Picture.

In all, a mostly worthy list of Best Picture nominees, though for me, the omission for Best Picture was Jesse Eisenberg's wickedly sad/funny buddy film, A Real Pain. In what might seem like a throwback to another time in terms of movies where not much happens, but dialogue is everything (think Woody Allen comedies or Richard Linklater's "Before" trilogy), A Real Pain is all about words and the emotions they can provoke. It's a small movie with big themes and a finale that will leave you guessing and thinking. I would have switched out I'm Still Here for A Real Pain, especially since the former is already nominated for Best International Picture.

Of the four bigger budget production nominees, Wicked is the splashiest and, arguably, the most colorful and entertaining. But, without a writing or directing nomination, unlikely to take the big prize. The last time a movie won Best Picture without a writing or directing nomination was Grand Hotel in 1932. So not impossible, but not probable, either. The last musical to win Best Picture (unless you count Faye Dunaway's 2017 envelope mix-up) was Chicago in 2003. Only ten musicals have won Best Picture, and nine of those recipients were either remakes or retreads of Broadway productions. The sole original, An American in Paris (1951), was the brainchild of the brilliant director and choreographer Gene Kelly, who followed the next year with another classic, Singin' in the Rain, now thought of as a much better film than Paris, but one which critics initially considered "artistically inferior" to Kelly's predecessor. It didn't even get a Best Picture nomination!

At the opposite end of Wicked's colorful spectrum is Dune: Part Two, director Denis Villeneuve's sequel to 2021's Dune, an apocalyptic sci-fi adventure based on Frank Herbert's 1965 novel. Though the franchise has a kind of cult following and has yielded solid box office draw, it just doesn't seem like the kind of movie favored as a best picture: too dark, no real emotional investment, and an almost three-hour running time. Epic, yes, but not the kind of epic that has generated enough momentum to win Best Picture. And no director or writing noms here, either.

Conclave, a fall release and early favorite to dominate the awards season, has its best chance in the adapted screenplay category, as sentimental acting nominee, Ralph Fiennes seems to have disappeared from serious lead actor contention. Beautiful production design and cinematography plus director Edward Berger's killer vision that turns the mysterious machinations of the Catholic church as iti elects the next pope into a taut, mesmerizing political thriller. But - here again - no directing nom for Berger.

Finally, A Complete Unknown has all the necessary components to score a Best Picture win: directing, writing and acting noms, with additional recognition in some of the technical fields. But it seems to have been overshadowed all awards season by the presence of The Brutalist and Anora, both considered independent darlings of varying degrees: The Brutalist for its epic scope made on a comparatively small budget, and Anora for its reinvention of the traditional rom-com formula.

What all of this means is the awards themselves have the potential to generate a more exciting awards ceremony than last year, when the predicted Oppenheimer sweep occurred without deviation, and the Oscars turned out to be a bit of a snoozer... except maybe for Billie Eilish's heartfelt rendition of her Oscar-winning song, "What Was I Made For?" - and Ryan Gosling's now iconic production number for another nominated song, the prog-rock anthem, "I'm Just Ken."

Of course, every year I remind myself that the Oscars have never been the best indicator of quality in films, as the "best" picture each year does not necessarily match what's in the envelope on Oscar night. If quality was the standard, then Hard Truths would have scored a few nominations, Cillian Murphy would have been recognized for Small Things Like These, and Carol Kane would be the frontrunner for supporting actress. My personal investment in who wins is generally tied to the movie(s) that remind me why I love cinema. In that case, a win for A Complete Unknown would make for a very satisfying night in MJ's haus.

As I moved toward finalizing my Oscar picks this year, I've also wondered about the impact of the California wildfires on the nominees and the eventual winners. For example, it's pretty clear that Demi Moore's Golden Globe win for Lead Actress Comedy, along with her powerful and heartfelt acceptance speech that clearly articulated the contiguous path of her career and her character, Elizabeth Sparkle, propelled her to an Oscar nomination a few weeks later. Ditto Fernanda Torres's Globes victory in the Lead Actress Drama category, who emotionally dedicated the award to her actress mother, Fernanda Montenegro (honored twenty-five years ago by the Globes for Central Station), and, in the process, edged out other powerful nominees like Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Nicole Kidman when the Oscars noms for Best Actress were announced a few weeks later.

The Critics Choices Awards, originally scheduled to air January 12, but moved twice due to the devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area, finally aired February 8, two weeks after the Oscar nominations were announced. When Wicked's Jon M. Chu was named the Critics' recipient for Best Director, the gasps in the room were audible, as Chu did not receive an Oscar nom, an omission that could impact Wicked's chances at a Best Picture Oscar. Had the Critics Choice awards aired before the Oscar nominations were announced, would Chu have secured a nom?

Hard say. But Brady Corbet's Globes win for Best Director, together with the delayed Critics Choice ceremony, may have had an impact, especially given that Corbet's acceptance speech was wretched. If AMPAS members had witnessed Chu's more genuine "thank you" sooner, might he have overtaken Corbet's Oscar nom?

Another question concerns the timing of Oscar voting (February 11-18) with the SAG Awards, which don't air until February 23, meaning Oscar ballots will have been submitted before SAG award winners are announced. This timeline could have consequences for Oscar, as SAG winners often become the final indicator of who'll go all the way with AMPAS. Last year, Lily Gladstone's SAG win seemed to signal her eventual victory on Oscar night. But AMPAS voting didn't close for two days after the SAG's. In the end, Gladstone's strongest challenger, Emma Stone, won the final prize on Oscar night.

So what will be the consequence of this year's delays, voting timelines, and out of sync schedule? We'll never know, but, as I observe all the ups and downs and changing sentiments that are commonplace during the awards season race, the impact of events like the California wildfires raise questions about the unintended consequences for Oscar. Again, it's no accident that the re-election of Donald Trump with his almost immediate Executive Order denying transgender rights in athletics could have a negative effect on Emilia Pérez's chances of turning its groundbreaking subject into Oscar gold.

What has continued to emerge among the nominations is an interesting collection of movies that have some common themes, yet many diverse perspectives on the world we live(d) in. If you want to read more in-depth analyses of each Best Picture nominee, check out my reviews on this blog: https://www.mjthemovies.com

As regular readers of my annual Oscar picks know, I have bemoaned AMPAS’s decision to expand the number of Best Picture nominees in 2009 from five to ten so as to be more “inclusive” of the variety of films made or, more precisely, a way to insure that really mediocre, big budget films that made lots of money are included, potentially ensuring that Oscar’s TV audience is interested enough to watch.

The truth is, Oscar ceremony ratings peaked back in 1998 when 55 million viewers watched Titanic take home Best Picture. The last time the show drew more than 40 million viewers was 2014, when 12 Years a Slave won the top prize. Even rebound ratings during the pandemic could not measure up to 2014's big score. Last year's Barbenheimer phenomenon saw an increased awards show viewership of 4% from previous years, but it's clear that expanding the number of Best Picture nominees to ten as a way to increase interest (re: boost ratings) with more potential for big budget nominees hasn't worked on several levels.

And now, as we enter the sixteenth year since this expansion has been applied to the voting process, none of the biggest grossing movies ever has won Best Picture. In 2023, the top-grossing movie was Barbie, with a $1.4 BILLION box office take globally. Oppenheimer, Barbie's biggest box office challenger, ultimately took home for the Best Picture trophy. So close.

Last year, I admitted to seeing the Oscars the same way I view the Electoral College: no longer functioning as it was originally designed, in danger of becoming irrelevant, and increasing slanted toward the "winner take all" approach to recognition. That probably won't happen this year as Best Picture winners have fluctuated wildly from awards show to awards show, with equal recognition bestowed upon four of them: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez.

Anora was first out of the gate, winning Cannes' prestigious Palme D'Or back in the spring. But only three Palme D'Or recipients have gone on to win Best Picture: The Lost Weekend (1945), Marty (1955), and most recently, Parasite (2019). Those odds are not encouraging for Anora, although it seems to have gained momentum with its DGA and PGA wins.

The narrative arc that initially favored The Brutalist with Emilia Pérez its closest rival has dissipated amidst the recent social media scandal and has sent pundits scrambling to determine how much of a destructive impact Gascón's re-tweets might have. Anora's victory at both the Producers Guild (PGA) and Directors Guild (DGA) awards is definitely a boost toward Oscar, so there's that, although it's unclear if the PGA winner this time around will mean a slam dunk for Oscar. Remember that AMPAS voters are not only actors. Included are cinematographers, editors, and other technical guild members, so the film that emerges as the "best" is often the one that more successfully dodged political bullets and benefitted from a strong marketing campaign. Conclave won the BAFTA and, in the process, threw in other potential recipients for Best Picture.

At any rate, I'm holding out hope that a film other than Anora is crowned "best." That's mostly because I may be among the minority who was not enamoured with Sean Baker's re-imagined Pretty Woman story. Not only did that pilfer PW's Cinderella conceit, but they almost literally stole lines from the 1990 rom-com. Lots of crass sexuality that's supposed to equate to authenticity, but the movie never really spoke to me intellectually or emotionally. Guess repeated erect penis slapstick just isn't my thing. Give me Justin and Andy's "Dick in a Box" over this anytime. (Can you tell I was watching SNL 50 as I write this?)

Besides, there was a real groundbreaking rom-com this year called Hitman, written and directed by Richard Linklater (another great director who never received a directing Oscar), that had a smart script, a dynamite performance from actor Glen Powell, and an ending that raises questions about what constitutes a happy ending.

In the past, I haven't pointed out the difference between critics and industry awards. The Golden Globes are voted on by a relatively small group of foreign journalists. Critics Choice members are mostly print journalists from major newspapers. But the BAFTA, SAG and OSCARS are populated by members across the industry and include guilds beyond acting (re: technical workers like cinematographers and make-up artists). That's why some of the early wins for films like The Brutalist may not prevail when the final envelope is opened. And this year's BAFTA split - director for Brady Corbet, picture for Conclave - may be a better indicator of what will happen March 2.

I do hope, though, that by the time the Best Picture is announced, many viewers will still be watching the show. Its start time again this year (7 ET/6CT on ABC and, for the time steaming live on Hulu), won't keep you up past midnight. Its outcome is just not so predictable right now, and I what I've yet to see is an overwhelming amount of "fan love" for any of the nominees, save perhaps Demi Moore (her performance, not so much the movie), or Wicked, which came in to movie theaters as an already beloved musical. I'm not sure Wicked on its own would have defied gravity by spawning the memes, TikTok moments, and merch had it not had its very popular Broadway predecessor paving the way. Okay. I'll stop with the puns... for now.

Recalling last year's Barbie blitz, fans were going to the theaters dressed as their favorite Barbie. Parodies (my own included) of "I'm Just Ken" were all over social media, culminating with Ryan Gosling's epic production number at the Oscar ceremony that may be the definitive expression of the movie's message. Watch it again (or, for the first time, if you haven't seen it - and if you haven't, what's wrong with you?), and see how it captures, not only the essence of Barbie, but the spirit of Hollywood at its finest. It's available on YouTube.

After all, even though it didn't win Best Picture last year, Barbie is still brilliant.

Best Picture votes are ranked by AMPAS members, so they don't just vote for one. That said - and despite what film receives this year's Oscar - Emilia Pérez was the best picture of 2024. Period. End of story.

From MJ's perspective, it would be awesome to see each Best Picture nominee get some recognition, not just as a superficial display of inclusion, but because each of them has something to offer: performance (A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain), stunning visuals (Wicked, Dune: Part Two), theme and concept (The Brutalist, Nickel Boys). You name it. There's something for everyone.

No matter what this year's outcome, it's been a wild ride, and an especially invigorating one in light of what might be a renaissance for independent filmmaking. Here's to the momentum continuing, creating more opportunities to share stories, using film to see the world through many different lenses.

All things considered, I'm going to go out on a big of a limb this year and predict Conclave as the upset Best Picture winner. It's a worthy choice, and certainly one that befits the award.

MJ's Pick: Conclave

Also Likely: Anora

Upset: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora  

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Did I mention last year: Greta Gerwig, who directed the 2023's biggest grossing film, Barbie - and who, along with producer/star Margot Robbie, single-handedly saved the movie industry from box office irrelevance, wasn't nominated for Best Director? If you missed it, I'm reiterating the snub here.

This year, the token woman director nominee (last year's was Anatomy of a Fall's Justine Triet), is Coralie Fargeat, who co-wrote/directed the horror-aging flick, The Substance. Like Triet, Fargeat is not American, which means, at least in Hollywood-speak, she's safe. Her international status allows her a kind of automatic gravitas and also gives AMPAS the freedom to discount her viability as a nominee. We nominated her, after all, no need to give her an Oscar. We've been inclusive and recognized a non-American artist. No need to promote her further for a win.

The other four nominees were all pretty much expected, except that many filmgoers thought Conclave's Edward Berger was a shoe-in, given the movie's solid box office, critical acclaim, and early wins among film critic circles. Others thought Wicked's Jon M. Chu or Dune's Denis Villeneuve would secure the final spot after Brady Corbet, Jacques Audiard, and Sean Baker. James Mangold's nom for A Complete Unknown was probably the biggest surprise, given that the movie has not garnered the same kind of critical (re: innovative) praise as Anora or The Brutalist. Fargeat probably rode on Moore's expanding coattails after the latter's Globes win for Lead Actress Comedy. If not for Moore picking up momentum when she won the Golden Globe, Fargeat might not be here.

We now know that Best Director and Best Picture no longer align the way they did in the last century (writing recipients are developing a more consistent link to the Best Picture winner), so this year's Best Director may not ride the same kind of wave that last year's recipient, Christopher Nolan, did with his bio-epic Oppenheimer.

After the DGA's, Sean Baker appeared to have the edge for Anora, but - like the Critics Choice delay - some of the voting ended before Oscar nominations were announced, so it's hard to tell if Baker's win was the result of the movie's early praise, something more sustainable going forward. But Baker's victory did take the wind out of Brady Corbet's all but expected DGA win for The Brutalist...until Corbet snagged the BAFTA.

In the end, maybe Corbet's awful Golden Globes acceptance speech will com back to haunt him. It's hard to tell right now, as the odds still show Baker with a slight lead in this category, and kudos to him for his passionate acceptance speech at the Film Independent Awards, championing freedom for independent film and filmmakers.

The thing I find slightly annoying this year is that all five nominees are newcomers to this category (Audiard and Mangold were previously nominated for Academy Awards for Best International Feature and Best Adapted Screenplay, respectively), so the winner will be first time director nominee forever etched in Oscar history. And Spike Lee and Quentin Tarantino have still not been recognized in this category. To me, it says something about Hollywood when some of its shining stars do not not appear in the most basic historical information. Ditto Alfred Hitchcock. Does anyone else seem something wrong here?

This year's race is really too close to call, and the question of whether the BAFTA's influence will continue makes this a fight to the finish.

MJ's reluctant pick: Sean Baker, Anora

But if the BAFTA's influence is strong, it will be... Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

MJ's LINGERING HUGE SNUB FROM 2024:

WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED FOR BEST DIRECTOR AND WON?

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Question: If the Academy can't decide between Baker and Corbet, can we just give it to Greta?

*******

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown                                        

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing                      

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice  

This year's Best Actor nominees were pretty much secured early on, with Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Ralph Fiennes and Colman Domingo among those that seemed certain to nab a nom. The fifth spot was the puzzle, with early favorites like Golden Globe nominee Daniel Craig (Queer) and Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) receiving critical love. Even Hit Man's Glen Powell was thought to be potential contender.

In the end, though, it was Sebastian Stan from The Apprentice who secured the final spot. Too bad, and kind of a throwaway, unless Hollywood really wants to thumb its nose at POTUS #47. The satire that focuses on Donald Trump's early relationship with Roy Cohen isn't groundbreaking, though, for some, its release amidst the 2024 election seemed timely...and timed to throw shade at the current president.

It's Stan's first nomination - actually, do any of you reading this know who Sebastian Stan is? For the uninitiated, Stan is a Romanian actor whose previous work has primarily been television and a few Broadway plays. He's hardly a household name, and his inclusion here seems to have happened because of his unexpected Golden Globe win for Lead Actor Comedy, and the confluence of his film with the recent Presidential election.

Stan is not exactly an actor with a resume of great performances or a reputation of great range and skill. Unlikely (re: not a snowball's chance in hell) to win. Maybe he should just be glad he got a ticket to the show. Of course, the way the Kennedy Center's leadership and staff have been systematically fired of late, maybe #47 will stuff the AMPAS ballot box...or pay members to cast their ballot for him...uh, I mean Stan.

Early frontrunner Fiennes seemed poised to take home his first gold statue, after previous nominations for supporting actor (Schindler's List, 1993) and lead actor (The English Patient, 1996). A win for Conclave as Cardinal Lawrence, a quietly devout clergyman tortured by doubt and uncertainty, would be more of a life achievement award for the always reliable, if mostly underappreciated Fiennes. Quick! Name five of his best films! It would be both a career accolade and a comeback all in one.

At the opposite end of the age/career spectrum is Timothée Chalamet, another third-time nominee, whose win would make him the youngest actor to win Best Actor. Fellow nominee Adrien Brody currently holds that title, having received his first Oscar in 2003, just weeks away from his 30th birthday. Chalamet's previous back-to-back nominations for lead actor (Call Me By Your Name, 2017) and supporting actor (Beautiful Boy, 2018), established him as Hollywood's "It" boy, an actor for a new generation, whose image was immeasurably enhanced by his bold fashion statements on red carpets from Hollywood to Cannes and back again.

Chalamet has expanded his career choices and silver screen credibility in bigger films like Dune (Parts One and Two), and demonstrated his singing chops in last year's whimsical Wonka. A Complete Unknown, a reported five-years-long project for Chalamet and director James Mangold, showcases both Chalamet's range and depth as actor, not just a mere impersonator of Bob Dylan's life and music. He embodies the iconic Dylan in ways that go far beyond mimicry, delving deep into the musician's head and elusive nature. It is a singularly bold and effective performance, and I'd be lying if I said I won't be jumping up and down and shouting if he were to pull off an upset over Adrien Brody this year and win.

And he just might. Brody, the previous Best Actor winner for 2002's The Pianist, has been leading the odds in this category all awards season. Until recently, and after the admission that he allowed director Brady Corbet to alter his Hungarian accent using AI-generated enhancements. Brody is said to have been slowly slipping in the polls. Again, the ever-changing timelines of voting for things like the Critics Choice and Oscar nominations, along with various controversies surfacing about the films, may just be showing consequences now.

The question I have is whether Hollywood will give Brody another Oscar for essentially playing the same type of character - conflicted artist and Holocaust survivor - that he won for the first time.

Chalamet's been busy throughout the awards campaign: he hosted and served as musical guest last month on Saturday Night Live to overwhelmingly positive reviews. Before that, he demonstrated that he'd done his homework when he appeared as guest analyst on "College Game Day" and impressed fans and fellow announcers with his thoughtful (and accurate) prediction of college bowl games. Though Chalamet's activities are clearly planful and designed to raise public - and AMPAS voters' - awareness of his talent, he's also putting in the time and work necessary to prove his artistic worth. Heck, he even showed up at N.Y.C.'s A Complete Unknown premiere in an outfit reminiscent of Dylan's 2003 Sundance Film Festival appearance.

Will Brody's accent-alterations cost him the Oscar? Will Chalamet's robust campaign help his chances? Maybe. But I would argue that Brody's portrayal of Hungarian-Jewish architect Lazlo Toth, is more Oscar-bait than artistic inspiration. The same thing could be said of The Brutalist, in general. Co-writer/director Corbet's vision of an epic immigration story that borrows heavily from writers like Ayn Rand and movies like Once Upon a Time in America, doesn't spare any sublty showcasing his story or the performances. Everything is exaggerated, from Brody's individualist searching for recognition to Guy Pearce's American industrialistic Harrison Van Buren, bullying, brutalizing and bragging his way to financial success. Chalamet's performance was more organic and, for me, ultimately more moving and satisfying. But I'm not an AMPAS member.

The final hopeful for Best Actor ( but not the last or least ), is another previous nominee, Colman Domingo, whose performance in last year's Rustin earned him his first Oscar recognition. Domingo is a fine actor who, unfortunately, makes movies that almost nobody sees in the theater and whose topics are not mainstream cinematic fare. Playing a gay Civil Rights leader and then a wrongfully convicted prisoner (this year's Sing Sing) hasn't exactly brought him the kind of leading man identity of other actors of color, including (and especially) Denzel Washington.

Sing Sing had early buzz among film critics but, after limited theatrical release last spring and almost no box office, now only has Domingo's nomination to its credit. And a movie with only one acting nomination is unlikely to bring home a winner. Too bad. Domingo deserves to see more recognition and more publicity than he has so far, although he has definitely made a splash as a real dandy on various red carpets.

So it's between Brody and Chalamet, with Brody still the favorite by an eyelash. The thing that fries me about this race is that, six years ago, Rami Malek won almost every award possible for a truly bad performance as Freddie Mercury in the very conventional, completely mediocre biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody. Granted, the movie was years in the making and Mercury had already attained mythic status as the AIDS-stricken rebel who died too young. But the end result was kind of a letdown after all the hype.

If I want to experience the magic that was the signature of Queen's charismatic frontman, I can Google up lots of live concerts (LiveAid, for one) that capture his aura. Malek, outfitted with a really bad set of teeth and who lip-synced the performance, is a poor imitation of the genius that was Freddie Mercury.

Not so with Timothée Chalamet who embodies Bob Dylan is what is transformative, something beyond mere impressionism. Chalamet crawled inside Dylan's head (if that's possible) and emerged with an interpretation of a young artist on the verge of greatness, one who is unwilling to compromise his values or his existential core, who refuses to be pigeon-holed or categorized, one who raises more questions than gives answers. It is a brilliant tour de force, where Chalamet shows he doesn't need AI or pre-recordings to sing. The performance is all Timothée. And for those who till think his is an "imitation" of Dylan, look again. Not since Philip Seymour Hoffman morphed into Truman Capote twenty years ago have we seen this type of organic, ingenious, spiritually evolutionary performance.

Like the Director's race, Best Actor is almost too close to call. Though Brody has won most of the major awards, including the BAFTA, Chalamet won the SAG, so the question of how close the BAFTA vote count was weighs heavily on the final outcome. I'm going to go with my heart this year and predict (hope for?) an upset in this category.

MJ’s pick: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

But if not Lil Timmy Tim: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Hands down, the best performance by an actress in a leading role this year was Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Mike Leigh's tragicomic exploration of family, Hard Truths. She is mesmerizing and maddeningly effective from start to finish in what is, arguably, this year's most uncomfortable and intimate performance. But she didn't receive an Oscar nomination, probably the result of Fernanda Torres's and Demi Moore's Golden Globes wins in the Lead Actress categories, and now gets my vote for this year's most unfortunate and egregious omission. Call her my Greta Gerwig for 2025.

Who would I swap out for Jean-Baptiste? Probably Mikey Madison, whose "breakthrough" performance as a sex worker in the highly praised Anora didn't move me as much as it did many film critics. Looks like the old "hooker with a heart of gold" story needed a reboot, but a movie that shamelessly lifts plot lines and dialogue from 1990's Pretty Woman didn't hold much interest for me. In some ways, though, I wonder if it's Madison's performance or the film's hype that bothered me most. I went in expecting (hoping?) to see something revolutionary and edge. Instead, I watched a mostly depressing retread of stale storylines in which bad girls find love only to be rejected and left alone and untethered. Been there. Done that. Seen it before. Next. Can you tell I was unimpressed?

Last year, this category was a down-to-the wire face-off between previous Oscar winner Emma Stone for for her unabashedly raw Bella in Poor Things, and newcomer Lily Gladstone, whose quiet dignity shone among a mostly male cast Killers of the Flower Moon. The battle of the "Stone's," as I called it, went back and forth the entire awards season until Emma emerged as the Oscar winner.

NOTE: I called Emma's victory last year.

I don't see that kind of contest again. Despite a surge of accolades about her "breakthrough" performance (Is my sarcasm breaking through yet?), Madison has only managed to capture one major award this season, the BAFTA (and her acceptance speech was uninspiring), so she's still a longshot. Fernanda Torres is also an unlikely recipient, even though her film I'm Still Here, is nominated in both the Best Picture and Best International Film categories. A well-respected actress around the world, Torres' turn as a woman forced to reinvent herself and change her life after her husband is imprisoned during a 1970s Brazilian political coup, is quietly powerful and her inclusion among the five best is earned and appropriate. I just don't see her taking the prize, especially with the strong presence of Demi Moore in this category.

And it doesn't appear that Karla Sofía Gascón will recover from the recent social media scandal. She has voluntarily removed herself from attending any of the remaining awards ceremonies so that the remaining nominees from Emilia Pérez are not negatively impacted by her presence. Netflix has removed all images of her from their Oscar campaign, not even recognizing her historic nomination as the first transgender actress nominated for an Oscar. It's really a shame, given the complexity of her role and the audacity of Emilia Pérez as a ground-breaking, genre-bending film.

In addition to her powerfully visceral performance, Demi Moore's consistently touching acceptance speeches not only parallel her professional journey with alter ego Elizabeth Sparkle, they solidify The Substance's exploration of the impossible, even deadly, standards placed on women as they age, a theme that has resonated with women outside of Hollywood.

Moore, a self-described "popcorn actress" who admitted she let a throwaway comment from an unenlightened producer made decades ago define the scope of her talent, is known primarily for her presence as a member of the 1980s Brat Pack, a dubiously dubbed group of twenty-something actors who appeared in many of the signature coming of age films of that era and that also included Rob Lowe, Andrew McCarthy, Ally Sheedy, Emilio Estevez and Judd Nelson.

Moore went on to achieve movie star status in films like 1990s otherworldly romance, Ghost, as well as in more dramatic roles in A Few Good Men and GI Jane. Her provocative cover photo for Vanity Fair magazine in 199, captured by the esteemed Annie Leibovitz when Moore was seven months pregnant, set off another kind of notoriety that may have affected public perception of Moore as a serious actress. In 1996, Moore became the highest paid Hollywood actress ($12 million) for the less than artsy movie, Striptease which resulted in cynics and critics bestowing on her the nickname "Gimme Moore," an interesting response given that Moore's husband at the time, Bruce Willis, was making almost twice as much per film for action adventure fare like the Die Hard franchise. "Yippee-ki-yay, motherfucker."

Moore could make Willis's mantra her own after this year's transcendent, visceral performance. The thing that makes Moore's nomination all the remarkable is not only the long overdue recognition of a forty year career that now merits review and potential revision, it also marks a year in which significant stories for women over fifty dominated the year. In addition to Moore, fellow nominees Torres and Gascón are also over fifty and Cynthia Erivo is nearing forty, making Madison the sole carrier of the ingenue banner. In the past, Oscar favored bestowing the Best Actress honor on a younger, up-and-coming artist (think Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook or Brie Larson in The Room). But the last decade has seen AMPAS membership expand and diversify, as well as see its older white male members (re: producers) retire or pass on, paving the way for more films about older women and more industry-wide acceptance that interesting stories about mature women have an audience.

The almost-ran's this year included Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, Angelina Jolie for Maria and the aforementioned Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths. I'm on the fence about Kidman's courageous turn as a successful CEO whose self-destructive sexual appetite leads to a provocative, inappropriate liaison with a corporate intern. It's a role that is not only daring in subject but also in Kidman's ability to bare deep emotional needs that exhibit layers of unfulfilled passion and personal self-acceptance.

I saw (or, rather, endured) Angelina Jolie's fiercely posed performance as Maria Callas and kept wondering why there was so much positive buzz around it. The film itself, Maria, is the third in director Pablo Larrain's trilogy that previously focused on Jacqueline Kennedy and Princess Diana. Both films landed Best Actress nominations for the actresses, Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart, respectively, who portrayed those characters at pivotal (re: challenging) moments in their lives.

Jolie does little more than posture and lip sync in a film that is so painfully slow I'll admit I fast-forwarded several times because Larrain's cinematic self-indulgence, coupled with Jolie's self-absorbed gaze, never delivered the emotional punch needed to capture the last several days of opera diva Callas's life. It was, overall, a real disappointment and let down after the first two movies in the trilogy were far more compelling in terms of character development and performance.

I've talked about Jean-Baptiste before, including in my review of Hard Truths, so I won't belabor the point again. But Jean-Baptiste's exclusion from this year's nominees should dismay cinephiles who are familiar with her impressive career and, especially, this year's devastatingly raw performance in another Mike Leigh-directed triumph.

And then there's Cynthia Erivo. Her powerful Elphaba, aka the Wicked Witch of the West in Jon M. Chu's prequel to The Wizard of Oz, is a force of nature. This is her third nomination ( the first two for Best Actress and Original Song for "Stand Up" from 2019's Harriet ), and she remains one win short of becoming an EGOT, so an Oscar would solidify her status in that prestigious group.

But Wicked is probably not going to be the venue that will make Erivo the 28th achiever of the "grand slam of American show business." The second, even darker, act/half of the musical is expected to be released later this year, so it will be interesting to see if Erivo's recognition continues will be extended into the next installment of the Oz saga. I was a bit surprised that Erivo made the cut over Jean-Baptiste, and I continue to question why more female actors of color aren't included in the final five. It seems that multiple nominees of color are rare.

In the acting categories since 2001, Best Actor has nominated more than one actor of color three times (two of them w/Denzel and Will Smith), Best Actress has one year of multiple nominees of color. The supporting categories fare slightly better, w/Best Supporting actor showing three times multiple nominees of color were recognized, and Best Supporting Actress ahead of all categories with five.

Still, one has to question why nominations for actors of color remain elusive. Granted, there are Asian, Hispanic and other underrepresented groups not included in my assessment, but Hollywood's continued ignorance toward recognizing arts of colors seems to threaten its relevance to the public at large, seems more out of touch than the subjects of this year's films.

Stats on whether the BAFTA or SAG is a better predictor of Oscar doesn't help much, either. Of the thirteen times that Best Actress nominees have been split with one winning the SAG and another winning the BAFTA, seven SAG winners have gone on to win the Oscar, and seven BAFTA's have received Oscar gold. So a pretty much a dead heat there, too.

So, based on the recipients so far this awards season, including BAFTA, SAG, the Globes and Critics' Choice, I'm going with Demi Moore's career-defining comeback in The Substance. This is hardly the prediction I thought I'd be making three months ago, but as I've watched the arc of this year's awards season, it's clear that Moore has checked every box to take home Oscar gold, from her courageous performance to her heartfelt acceptance speeches, to the statement she has made for women in Hollywood. You can get much better than that, and I'm actually looking forward to what she will say on Oscar night.

MJ’s pick: Demi Moore, The Substance                

Might be... Mikey Madison, Anora

Upset: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

The past few years, this category has been among the most interesting and competitive, though the past two years, the eventual recipient has been a foregone conclusion throughout the awards season. The 2025 class boasts another collection of very strong performances, with Kieran Culkin securing the Robert Downey, Jr., spot as odds-on favorite. Unlike Downey, whose enthusiastic, often self-deprecating run for Oscar was, in itself, a kind of redemption story, Culkin's journey has been a steady climb of artistic excellence and credibility in multiple arenas, including television and theater.

His turn as the title annoyance in A Real Pain, playing Benji Kaplan, Bohemian charmer and perennial fuck-up, foil to his more responsible, reliable cousin David (Jesse Eisenberg), was hailed as the best supporting performance of the year before the film's release in mid-October. Since then, Culkin has won almost every award for this performance, from film festivals to regional critics associations to industry recognition.

Unless the earth's orbit changes or an unknown asteroid collides with our planet, I expect he'll repeat his winning run on Oscar night. His acceptance speeches have been consistently genuine and authentic, which only enhances his appeal. Plus, partner in crime Eisenberg has not only praised Culkin's performance, he's confirmed that, despite his (Eisenberg's) vision for the movie, Culkin regularly came onto set and changed things, rearranging the molecules and creating a kind of energy and tension that really underscored Eisenberg's brilliant script.

It's Culkin's first Oscar nomination - actually, four of the five nominees are first-timers for Oscar, and his performance is typical of a best supporting role: long after the credits role and you leave the theater, it's Culkin's Benji who stays with you. I've seen A Real Pain twice now, and each time I keep coming back to the movie's last frame and the image of Benji sitting alone in an airport, somewhat lost and uncertain, as travelers scurry past him. It's a portrait of life: one punctuated by both contentment and alienation, by hope and despair.

Of the remaining nominees, Edward Norton and Guy Pearce are the only ones that represent any significant competition for Culkin, with Pearce's fierce American industrialist Harrison van Buren the antithesis of Norton's gentle, peace-loving folk icon Pete Seeger. Pearce has been touted by some critics as the "best" because of van Buren's pivotal role in The Brutalist, the one who drives much of what happens to Adrien Brody's architect protagonist. For me, though, Pearce's performance was mostly scene-chewing bravado that lacked the kind of nuance found in Culkin's Benji or Norton's banjo-playing social activist.

For Norton, the only return nominee among this group, this is his fourth Oscar nomination: two previous supporting noms for Primal Fear (1997) and Birdman (2015), and a lead actor nomination for American History X (1999). His determination to show Seeger as an agent of social change is totally in sync with Chalamet's portrayal of Dylan as an artist determined not to be pigeon-holed or categorized is refreshing and real, and Norton's own diligence in learning to play the banjo (a very difficult instrument to master, for you non-musicians out there), is not only admirable, it is astonishing. No AI-generated licks or vocals here. Norton is pure Seeger.

Both Pearce and Norton give strong performances worthy of an Oscar win - and between the two of them, I'm partial to Norton - but I'm still predicting a Culkin victory. His Benji is too unique and memorable to ignore, even though I would argue that Culkin has as much screen time as Eisenberg and that his candidacy as a "supporting" actor is more strategic maneuvering than true supporting role, which is the case with the other four nominees.

Yura Borisov, a relative newcomer to Hollywood and a first-time nominee, mostly gets lost and unnoticed in the Anora shuffle, and I'm still not sure why Jeremy Strong (another first-time nominee) is even here except that there is some subliminal notion that Strong's Roy Cohn somehow solidifies some of Hollywood's long-held notions about the current US President's rise to power and celebrity. It's a perverse and subversive performance, one that underscores fears about Trump's ethics (I'm using the term ironically here), ambition, rise to power. The problem is, a lot of other actors, including Al Pacino, have played the man once described in Esquire Magazine as "the toughest, meanest, loyalest, vilest, and one of the most brilliant lawyers in America."

When all is said and done, the ballots are submitted and tallied, I'm hoping to settle in for one of what could be Oscar night's most pleasant moment of the evening: another off-the-cuff, but really thoughtful, slightly goofy, but definitely genuine "thank you" from Macauley's younger brother.

MJ’s pick: Ryan Gosling, Barbie.

Period. No upsets. Just Ken.

Oops! I'm clearly having a flashback moment from last year. Kenough, now.

MJ’s REAL pick: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain 

Upset: Guy Peace, The Brutalist 

Longshot: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown                        

You think Ryan Gosling could reprise his now classic performance of "I'm Just Ken" one more time?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist                                                                        

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Though there's not quite the runaway in this category like last year's historic run for Da'Vine Joy Randolph, it's a pretty good bet that Zoe Saldaña will take the prize for her portrayal of a feisty, conflicted lawyer who aids and abets the titular Emilia Pérez.

The rest of the nominees all gave good performances, with Monica Barbaro a standout in the ensemble of A Complete Unknown with a memorable turn as folk singer/social activist Joan Baez and the tempestuous relationship she shared with fellow folk artist (and sometimes artistic rival) Bob Dylan. Like co-stars Timothée Chalamet, Edward Norton and Boyd Holwood (who plays country star Johnny Cash), Barbaro sang all her songs and learned to play the guitar. It is a pivotal, revealing performance.

Previous nominee Felicity Jones ( Best Actress for 2015's The Theory of Everything ), doesn't show up in The Brutalist until the second half, and her role seems mostly tangential to The Brutalist's main plot. I'm not a fan of creating characters that are introduced to support a director's theme or drive home some symbolic imagery, so I found Jones's Erzsébet Tóth, Holocaust survivor and wife to protagonist László Tóth (Adrien Brody) to be mostly wasted, especially since her letters drive the movie's first half. And, like Brody, Jones's Hungarian accent was AI-altered for authenticity.

Representing the "over 60" crowd, another first-time nominee, Isabella Rossellini, may feel caught in a kind of Oscar deja-vu, as her mother, Hollywood icon Ingrid Bergman, received her third and final Oscar (the first two were for Best Actress in 1944's Gaslight and 1956's Anastasia), for 1974's Murder on the Orient Express. Rossellini's had a distinguished film career, and her role as

Sister Agnes, Cardinal Lawrence's (Ralph Fiennes) caretaker and housekeeper, is one layered with secrets and political maneuverings that ultimately shape the outcome of who is elected Pope. Rossellini portrays Sister Agnes as a woman religious who is smart, savvy about ecclesiastical affairs, and circumspect in her dealings with those inside the Conclave and out. In another year, Rossellini's understated power might have placed her in the thick of competition. As it is, though, she holds her own among the mostly male cast and within the heart of the Catholic church's decision-making process.

Now, to be blunt: Ariana Grande shouldn't even been here. She's taking the spot that two other actresses more deservedly earned: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Nickel Boys and Carol Kane for Between the Temples. Ellis-Taylor's understatedly fierce performance as a mother fighting for justice when her college-bound son is wrongfully accused of a crime and sent to a detention facility becomes a kind of emotional core from which the movie's story unfolds. And Carol Kane, whose sole Oscar nomination came as Best Actress came almost fifty years ago for Hester Street, brought a quiet radiance to retired music teacher studying for her Bat Mitzvah and developing an unbreakable bond with her former student, now a cantor and charged with her ceremonial preparation. It is a lovely movie that was probably never considered Oscar-worthy, but Kane's performance shines, giving an otherwise wonky story about a widowed cantor (Jason Schwartzbaum) coming to terms with the rest of his life, buoyance, joy and hope.

Watching the trend the past few weeks, I'd be surprised if anyone other than Saldaña's name is announced on Oscar night.

MJ’s pick: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Upset: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora - Sean Baker

The Brutalist - Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvoid

A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg

September 5 - Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder

The Substance - Coralie Fargeat

Continuing great news: for the fourteenth consecutive year, both original and adapted screenplay categories are mostly very solid (more on that in a minute), demonstrating yet again (my first criterion for a great movie): good writing matters. This year, the awards might go to writer/directors in each category who won't win the directing trophy but whose script is deemed most worthy as a “consolation prize,” though one wonders how many consolation prizes Quentin Tarantino and Spike Lee need before taking home the Best Director trophy.

Again this year, we have stories that are big with ambitious themes (The Brutalist), and those that are more intimate with equally compelling philosophical questions (A Real Pain). Until a few weeks ago, I would have said that The Brutalist might win, but then Anora scored a trifecta of wins with the Producers, Directors and Writers Guilds, so I figured the Oscar was pretty much buttoned up for writer-director Sean Baker.

But then came the BAFTA's and an unexpected win for Jesse Eisenberg's funny-sad, beautifully genuine A Real Pain. And here we go again.

                         MJ’s pick: Anora, Sean Baker

But hoping for a real upset, and if there is one, calling it here:

A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave - Peter Straughan

A Complete Unknown - James Mangold and Jay Cocks

Emilia Pérez - Jacques Audiard

Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes

Sing Sing - Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, John "Divine" Whitfield

Three of the last four years, the Adapted Screenplay was a mirror of Best Picture, but I'm not sure that pattern will hold this year since the Conclave is no longer the Best Picture frontrunner and its screenplay was not eligible for a Writers Guild nomination. Except for that, Peter Straughan's riveting, articulate script has won every other major award this season.

Nickel Boys won the Writers Guild this year, so - if there's a contest - it's been director RaMell Ross's first movie and the more traditional opus that is Conclave. There was much critical praise for Ross's first person perspective in telling the horrific story of abuse at a southern detention home for boys in 1960s America, so a win here might be the film's only acknowledgement.

The other nominees are very strong, and demonstrate a variety of "adaptations" from novels (Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys and Conclave) to a non-fiction historical interpretation of a pivotal moment in American popular music (A Complete Unknown). The diversity of source materials in this category gives hope that Hollywood's future developing interesting, complex, and important social-cultural themes and perspectives shines bright.

MJ’s pick: Conclave, Peter Straughan

But it might also go to... Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes

ORIGINAL SONG

"El Mal" - Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

"The Journey" - Diane Warren, The Six Triple Eight

“Like a Bird” - Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Sing Sing 

“Mi Camino” - Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

“Never Too Late” - Elton John, Never Too Late

This year, AMPAS leadership, such as they are, decided NOT to have performances for the five nominees for Original Song, saying they wanted to instead honor the first responders and the city of Los Angeles in light of the recent wildfires that devastated LA's greater metropolis.

But I'm not buying AMPAS's faux altruism, at least not completely. Here's why: Last year's nominees boasted two sensational entries from Barbie - the evocative and eventual recipient, "What Was I Made For?" and the prog-rock anthem, "I'm Just Ken" - along with a third song, Dua Lupa's disco-infused "Dance the Night Away" that was deemed ineligible because only two songs per movie can make the final five. Anyway, the performances were stellar, specifically, Billie Eilish's haunting rendition of what would be her second Oscar-winning song, and Ryan Gosling's now classic, sure-to-become iconic production number on being Kenough, complete with Dancing Ken's, guitar virtuosos Slash and Wolfgang Van Halen, and Barbie-pink, Marilyn Monroe-inspired choreography and costumes.

How can you top that, especially since no one is humming the tunes from this year's nominees?

Even if you loved Emilia Pérez, as I did, its two nominated songs don't exactly roll off the tongue, though the lyrics are seamlessly integrated into the narrative and essential to the story. Previous and multiple winner Elton John's entry from the documentary about him is likely here because...well, it's Elton, and the increasing presence of songwriting team of Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt is becoming a noteworthy pattern. They previously won for 2018's "Shallow" (along with Lady Gaga), and were nominated last year for "I'm Just Ken," but their inventive blues-rap "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing seems to have suffered from the movie's overall lacklustre awards performance.

Now for the annual "elephant in the room" question: Would somebody just give Diane Warren a lifetime achievement Oscar or something? She's up for the sixteenth ( !!! ) time with NO previous wins. This year, she's nominated for "The Journey," a power ballad from the almost-straight to Netflix movie The Six Triple Eight, Tyler Perry's homage to an all-black, all-female battalion, a true story of courage in the face of racism and sexism that went unnoticed in the annals of World War II history until historian Kevin M. Hymel's 2019 article, "Fighting a Two-Front War" (WWII Magazine).

Back to the song. I did a little research and took a look at Diane Warren's list of nominated songs, and I must admit that, she probably should have won 30 years ago. Her first three nominations - "Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now" (from Mannequin with vocals by Grace Slick), "Because You Loved Me" (from Up Close and Personal with vocals by Celine Dion), and "How Do I Live" (from Con Air with vocals by LeAnn Rimes) are songs you may well remember, if you're old enough. The rest of the list gets progressively more obscure and less memorable.

Where does "The Journey" fit in? Somewhere in the middle...maybe. It's a pretty uninspiring ballad in film that deserves more power and cultural oomph. The best thing it has going for it are vocals by H.E.R., but it's another song that plays over the end credits, so not really integrated into the story in any sort of meaningful way. To add another challenge to "The Journey's" chances of winning an Oscar, it was released in May 2023 and reached #1 on the Adult R&B charts, which basically means almost no AMPAS members heard - or will remember - it. Sigh.

To revise again my annual rant (and not to put too fine a point on it yet again): This category’s been fuckingly inconsistent for years! Is it getting better? Maybe. The original intention of this category was exceptionally powerful last year when Billie Eilish (and brother Finneas) crafted a haunting ballad that underscored the serious themes embedded in Greta Gerwig's masterful Barbie. Except for it - plus 2019’s “Shallow," 2022's "No Time To Die," and 2023's "Naatu Naatu" (from RRR), not many recent winners have a meaningful connection to the film’s theme, characters or story.

Which brings us back "The Journey," a return to Warren's power ballad formula with vocals by H.E.R. Now that would have been a worthwhile Oscar performance. Can you imagine H.E.R. and Elton? Those two might be worth tuning into the Oscars, but the rest of the nominees might not be up for the task. Given the nature of Emilia Pérez, notably how the music is woven into the story by the actors, it is unlikely that Zoe Saldaña would have been up for a live performance, the kind Ryan Gosling was brave enough to carry off last year. "El Mal" is pivotal moment in the film, but it's a song that is designed for a movie production, not one that was intended for live performance.

For almost thirty years,what should be an award for a song that best fits the mood and theme of a movie, Best Original Song become synonymous with which nominated song was the biggest Top 40 hit. Screw its relationship to the film, and bring on the recording industry for another pat on the back. This year, the nominees again provide the opportunity for Oscar to award what the category was meant to be, and also meet that unspoken standard of creating a memorable song and maybe even a bonafide hit. The last few years have been intermittently promising. We haven't seen a pattern yet, but we're on our way.

MJ’s pick: "El Mal,” Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

If the smear campaign waged against Emilia Pérez shows serious signs of tanking any/most nominations for the film, then "El Mal" will be vulnerable and the award will likely go to...

“The Journey,” Diane Warren, The Six Triple Eight

Longshot: Any of the other nominees, with Elton John next in line.

REMINDER: We can still start a “Go Fund Me” page for Diane Warren to raise enough money to buy her an Oscar. Maybe not. Some type of life achievement may be coming.

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg

Conclave - Volker Bertelmann

Emilia Pérez - Clément Ducol and Camille

Wicked - John Powell and Stephan Schwartz

The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers

With three previous nominations and two wins under their belt, I was surprised that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross were not among the nominees this year for Challengers. And I'll admit that Daniel Blumberg's Wagnerian pomposity was really off-putting as the musical foundation in The Brutalist.

But Blumberg's been taken most of the major industry awards, and I don't see the other nominees as strong enough to put up much of a fight. Wicked suffers, in part, from being the movie version of a very popular Broadway show, and film orchestrations of Broadway musicals are notoriously watered down and uninspired. Volker Bertelmann won in this category two years ago for another Edward Berger film, All Quiet on the Western Front. Here, he creates an unmistakably rich and ethereal score, one that is punctuated by mystery and uncertainty, adding necessary tension and intrigue to Conclave's intricate story. Kris Bowers is already an Oscar winner, but not for music. He won last year's Best Documentary Short for The Last Repair Shop.

That leaves Clément Ducol and Camille, whose operatic rap-rock score for Emilia Pérez is revolutionary in scope and substance, the score perfectly in sync with the songs that are so intricately integrated into the dialogue that sometimes you don't notice the transition from dialogue to melody. It's an astonishing accomplishment and, arguably, Blumberg's only real potential competition this year.                                               

MJ’s pick: The Brutalist, Daniel Blumberg                        

Upset: Emilia Pérez, Clément Ducol and Camille

*******

And now for the less sexy Oscars: no one will care who wins or whether they bring a famous date. Hell, few will probably even know who the nominees are since most names are not familiar. Too bad. It’s always fun to see those who actually “make/create” what we see on film. But that’s increasingly not considered an integral part of Oscar night. Yet. Sigh.

Here are the “other” Oscar predictions, the ones that many wish could be awarded before the ceremony or during commercial breaks, like the Critics Choice Awards.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist - Lol Crowley

Dune: Part Two - Greig Fraser

Emilia Pérez - Paul Guilhaume

Maria - Ed Lachman

Nosferatu - Jarin Blaschke

Cinematography is often - and more recently - tied to Best Picture, but this year that connection seems less certain given the range of best picture recipients throughout the awards season. That said, I'm going to go with Lol Crowley for The Brutalist, mostly because of director Brady Corbet's use of 35 and 70mm filming. Corbet's determination to create an epic film using classic big screen technology (think Ben Hur or Lawrence of Arabia) is almost unheard of anymore: difficult to do and hard to maximize in terms of theaters capable of showing the 70mm version. The last director to insist on making a 70mm film was Quentin Tarantino for his 2015 western epic, The Hateful Eight.

The other nominees are all distinguished for different reasons: Paul Guilhaume's neon lit environment makes a contrasting backdrop to the crime world inhabited by Emilia Pérez; Greig Fraser has more sets (re: more planets and futuristic worlds) to capture in Dune: Part Two; Jarin Blaschke's use of a specialized filtering process helped create the otherworldly nightmare that is director Robert Eggers' reworking of the Nosferatu legend; and Ed Lachman completes director Pablo Larrain's trilogy using black and white and color to recreate opera diva Maria Callas's memories in Maria.

I was surprised that Conclave didn't get a nom, as Stéphane Fontaine uses light and shadows reminiscent of Citizen Kane to capture the spiritual intrigue that drives the film's narrative. Every shot, every conversation, every tiny detail is framed beautifully, so not sure why Fontaine isn't among the finalists. I would take him over both Lachman and Blaschke.

MJ’s pick: Lol Crowley, The Brutalist

If not, then… Emilia Pérez, Paul Guilhaume

If I had a vote.... Conclave, Stéphane Fontaine

FILM EDITING

Anora - Sean Baker

The Brutalist - Dávid Jancsó

Conclave - Nick Emerson

Emilia Pérez - Juliette Welfling

Wicked - Myron Kerstein

Even more than cinematography, film editing has been a barometer to predict the Best Picture award, but there wasn't a match between Editing and Picture from 2012 until the last two years with the Everything Everywhere All At Once and then Oppenheimer sweeps.

That same connection is probably not going to happen a third straight time, as the odds-on favorite right now - and BAFTA winner - in this category is Conclave. The strongest competition, if you're still looking for a Best Pic-Best Editor match is either Anora or The Brutalist.

The ultimate recipient will probably depend on whether Nick Emerson's taut editing that heightens Conclave's suspense - deftly letting us listen in on clandestine meetings and then quickly shifting to a bright and open gathering, giving viewers an almost voyeuristic entry into the canonical schemes taking place behind Vatican walls - garners votes. Or whether writer/director Sean Baker's own frenetic editing makes him seem more auteur than mere filmmaker. And then, of course, there's the more deliberate, precise juxtaposing of letters and flashbacks mixed into the epic storytelling that defines The Brutalist.

We may well see a match between Best Editing and Best Picture, but the way things have gone most of awards season, I wouldn't count on it.

MJ’s pick: Nick Emerson, Conclave

Possible Upsets: Sean Baker, Anora OR Dávid Jancsó, The Brutalist  

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia, Mercédesz Nagyváradi

Conclave

Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter

Dune: Part Two

Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

Nosferatu

Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerova

Wicked

Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Emily Lutyens, Lee Sandales

Though production design was a key component in director Robert Eggers re-imaging of the gothic horror tale and it received the Art Directors Guild (ADG) award for best Period Feature Film Design. But so did Wicked in the Fantasy Feature Film category. And Wicked also took the BAFTA and Critics Choice awards in Production Design.

The Academy loves seeing a good European (re: British) period piece or an epic futuristic world, and Wicked delivers on both fantasy and period levels. I can also appreciate the post-apocalyptic environment that is Dune. But I was probably most drawn to Conclave's recreation of mysterious world of the Vatican, complete with long, darkened hallways, private apartments, and its grand, heavenly lit Raphael Rooms. The set design and lightening added the necessary touches to heighten the movie's political intrigue, long hidden secrets, and surprise revelations.

MJ’s pick: Wicked

But don't be surprised if it's...             Nosferatu

Longshot: Conclave

COSTUME

A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

Conclave - Lisa Christi

Gladiator II  - Janty Yates and David Crossman

Nosferatu - Linda Muir

Wicked - Paul Tazewell

This award usually goes to a period piece, which used to mean pre-20th century or pre-moving pictures, so depending on your definition of “period” – or when you were born - either all or two of the films fill that bill this year. If the Academy takes this category quite literally and traditionally, then the race would be among Wicked, Gladiator II or Nosferatu.

Right now, Wicked has momentum after winning the BAFTA award in this category. It also received the prize in the Costume Designers Guild (CDG) fantasy category. Both Poor Things and Barbie were recognized by the Costume Designers Guild (CDG). Nosferatu won for "period" and Conclave won for "contemporary."

I'm going to go ahead and predict that American AMPAS voters will push Wicked forward as the winner. If not, then.... Nosferatu. But remember that Edith Head, the most honored costume designer of all time, once said it was easier to design a period piece than a contemporary film because audiences were more likely to spot flaws in clothing they knew (unless, of course, you're a Civil War historian, in which case you count buttons and check the shoes). You heard it here first.

MJ’s pick: Paul Tazewell, Wicked

OR: Linda Muir, Nosferatu  

Longshot: Lisa Christi, Conclave

PS If Paul Tazewell wins, he will be he first black male to win an Oscar in this category.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man - Sarah Graalman and Melanie Licata

Emilia Pérez - Julia Floch-Carbonel, Simon Livet, Emmanuel Janvier, Romain Marietti, and Jane Brizard and special effects makeup artist Jean-Christophe Spadaccini.

Nosferatu - Traci Loader

The Substance - Stéphanie Guillon and Pierre-Olivier Persin

Wicked - Frances Hannon

Holy cow! For several years, this category could not even come up with five nominees, and then – for the seventh year running – it’s filled. This year - again - the big question again is whether prosthetics or just plain old cosmetics will prevail.

Wicked has the most obviously over-the-top make-up and hair, from Elphaba being green to Glinda's being, well...Glinda - no curl, braid or extension goes unnoticed. Emilia Pérez showcased, among other things, transgender actress Gascón's transition from male mobster to female activist Emilia, as well as using makeup and hair to define the personalities of the other three female co-stars. We see the transformation of Zoe Saldaña's lawyer Rita through her clothes, makeup and hair, which evolve with her character.

But it's The Substance that most effectively depicts the movie's exploration of women aging, standards of beauty, utilizing graphic physical deterioration to create a metaphor for the deeper, psychological deprecation the main character, Elizabeth Sparkle (Demi Moore) experiences. It's a powerful example of how something as mundane as make-up and hair can make a difference in the film's takeaway message.

MJ’s pick: The Substance                    

Upset: Wicked

Longshot: A Different Man                                                                         

SOUND

A Complete Unknown

Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco

Dune: Part Two

Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill

Emilia Pérez

Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz, and Niels Barletta

Wicked

Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis

The Wild Robot

Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts

Since the Academy collapsed sound editing and sound mixing into one category, my annual explanations about the difference between sound “editing” and sound “mixing” are no longer needed. I’m left with a “use your ears” approach to this category. In short, you can really tell when sound is making a difference if you use your aural skills wisely. One suggestion: close your eyes and listen – best sound nominees utilize various techniques – from music to special effects to even silence – to capture and add an effective dimension to film. This year’s nominees again all had the kind of sound quality that is distinctive and powerful – such that, even if you’re not paying attention to the sound, you'll notice its impact at some level because sound affects the overall experience of watching the film.

Sound typically favors two film genres: musicals and action adventure, and once again, we have both this year, though an impressive three of the nominees are musicals. With Dune the only action adventure entry and The Wild Robot a remarkable work of animation, I'm betting on XXXDune to take the prize. Oppenheimer or The Zone of Interest to take the prize. It really comes down to whether AMPAS voters were more impressed by the cosmic soundscape employed in Oppenheimer or the horror movie pastiche used to evoke the banality of evil in Zone.  In both films, sound and silence create uncomfortable, foreboding effects that make the sensory movie experience richer, but also uneasy.

MJ’s pick: Dune: Part Two      

Contender: Wicked

Longshot:  A Complete Unknown

VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan

Better Man

Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs

Dune: Part Two

Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke

Wicked

Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould

Many people equate this award with a summer blockbuster, but recent recipients have been fall or holiday releases, with several also receiving Best Picture nods (think Life of Pi, Hugo, or Gravity). This year, director Denis Villeneuve's sequel to Dune was released in March, and it appears to have sustained its role as frontrunner in this category. The splashier Wicked may be a contender, especially with American AMPAS voters, but I'm putting my money on Villeneuve for its artistry and stunning ability to re-imagine author Frank Herbert's post-apocalyptic world. Wicked was jam-packed with visuals, so much so that, at times, it distracted from the powerful friendship story at its core. And the other nominees haven't had the critical support (re: Alien) or the release date (re: Better Man) to develop a following.

MJ’s pick: Dune: Part Two        

Upset:       Wicked                

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez (France)

Flow (Latvia)

The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)

I'm Still Here (Brazil)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Iran)

I haven’t seen all of the nominated films via streaming, so I’m speculating again a bit based on reviews….I'm guessing that, since it is unlikely to win Best Picture, Emilia Pérez will take home the International prize. It took the BAFTA in this category and has too many other nominations to be ignored. This acknowledgement would be a consolation to not winning the Best Picture.

I'm Still Here, though climbing in the polls after Fernanda Torres's Oscar nom for Best Actress - and Emilia's ongoing controversy, does not appear to have enough momentum or widespread appeal of to overtake it. And neither of these two frontrunners has the power of 2019's Parasite to sweep both Best Picture and Best International Film this, though five weeks ago, I would have put money on Emilia Pérez pulling another Parasite-like double victory.

Flow, an animated Latvian entry that landed noms here and in the Best Animated Feature category, appears all but forgotten, even though it was considered a top contender in both categories last fall. Overall, competition is solid, especially from Iran, though The Seed of the Sacred Fig seems to have faded throughout the awards season.

As I've written previously, the biggest issue selecting foreign films is the process, as the nominees are not voted on by the Academy. Individual countries (up to 90) are asked to submit what they think is the best film from their respective country. You can see the predictable consequences – in an effort to be more inclusive and diverse in the “international” nominees, we may not necessary be seeing the “best.”

Last year, Anatomy of a Fall was initially on the short list from France, until writer/director Justine Triet criticized French President Macron during her Cannes acceptance speech for the prestigious Palme D'Or. Whether the film's eventual omission as France's submission was a direct result of her comments is unclear, but - had it been among the five nominees - this category's odds would be very different, and the eventual winner, The Zone of Interest, might not have won the Oscar.

All that said, and with the Emilia controversy ongoing...

MJ’s pick: Emilia Pérez                           

Upset: I'm Still Here                                   

Longshot: The Seed of the Sacred Fig

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Sugarcane

With its usual collection of important social and political subjects – war, finance, world hunger – Best Documentary feature has some interesting nominees again this year. Four years ago, the late release – and crowd-pleaser - My Octopus Teacher won the Producers Guild Award and the BAFTA in this category and went on to win the Oscar.

No so this year. BAFTA's Best Documentary Feature award went to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve, the emotional and compelling story of the actor Christopher Reeve's triumphs and tragedies after a 1995 equestrian accident left him paralyzed from the neck down. Produced in collaboration with Reeve's three surviving children, the movie combines home videos with interviews from former artistic colleagues like Glenn Close and footage from Reeve's long friendship with the actor/comedian Robin Williams. It is a heartfelt and heartbreaking experience, not just for fans of a cinematic super hero, but for those who want to witness the power of the spirit to handle a most horrible kind physical adversity.

I actually went to the theater to see Super/Man, which carried some early buzz as a potential winner in this category. But the movie didn't make the final cut (surprisingly) for this year's Oscar finalists, though the Academy still managed to nominate six instead of the usual five feature documentaries, so we're left with a motley collection of subjects with varying appeal.

The nominee with the most momentum as we head into the final week before Oscar is No Other Land, a Palestinian entry that did not get the support of its government, but found a distributor, nonetheless. It's picked up a slew of accolades so far, including the prestigious IDA award, so I'd list it as the favorite. Two others, Porcelain War, about Ukrainian artists who join the war against Russia, and Sugarcane, about the atrocities found at Native American residential schools and won the Directing Award at Sundance, are strong contenders as well.

Lots of gravitas here, but only one award.

MJ’s pick: No Other Land

Upset: Porcelain War OR Sugarcane

ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

I’m reminding myself again of a bold statement in my 2023 Oscar picks: “If you’re betting on a sure thing and don’t need a big return, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio in the Animated Feature category may be the only lock this year.” Was I right, or what?

Or what? might be more fitting this year. None of the nominees has that kind of lock. Despite the box office juggernaut that was Inside Out 2, this race is mostly between the sweet and sentimental sci-fi tale of an unlikely parental bond, The Wild Robot, and Flow (also nominated for International Film), a fantasy adventure from Latvia unique for its use of the free and open-source software Blender and for its absence of dialogue. Both movies have been recognized by various film critics and festivals, so it's been a bit of a dead heat between the two.

Until now.The Wild Robot yielded a solid box office return and boasts a stellar cast of voices, including Lupita Nyong'o, Pedro Pascal, Catherine O'Hara, Bill Nighy, Kit Connor, Mark Hamill, Matt Berry and Ving Rhames. In particular, critics have singled out Academy Award winner Nyong'o's performance for elevating this heartwarming family film from good to "unforgettable." And the movie's uplifting message - "sometimes you must become more than you were programmed to be" - underscores its sophisticated visuals, turning a simple story into something deeper and more refined.

I've long documented my own lack of interest in animation, even though I truly respect the artistry and skill required to create Oscar-caliber features. Except for Del Toro's aforementioned Pinocchio, I rarely see any of the animated nominees. But this year, on a chilly Friday night when norovirus got the better of my husband, I happened upon The Wild Robot on Peacock and wound up watching it. Ninety minutes, and a few tissues later, I marveled at how what the NYTimes called "big feelings and great beauty" could be captured with such sophistication in a story that, on the surface, is really quite simple.

Kudos to Oscar winner Lupita Nyong'o for her impressive vocals as the robot, which elevate the movie into memorable status, in the kind of way the late Robin Williams lifted Aladdin above mere cartoon. A few months ago, I would have seen more of a race between Robot and Flow, the Latvian entry that's also up for Best International Film. But Flow hasn't done well in garnering the following (I was going to say "flow," but I didn't want to push it) needed to capture some of the big prizes. Even the BAFTA went to Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, but that's probably because it's British and a fan favorite there.

Of note this round is that two of the nominees in this category also made history:The Wild Robot director Chris Sanders now tying the record for most nominations for Best Animated Feature film, and Flow is the third animated film to be nominated concurrently for Best International Feature film. In that way, Del Toro's legacy of taking animation to deeper emotional and philosophical levels.

We've come a long way in the thirty-four years since Beauty and the Beast became the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture.

MJ’s pick: The Wild Robot

Upset: Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Longshot: Flow                                                                                                                                     

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Please see MJ's Oscar Picks: Part Deux for the "Shorts" - Documentary, Animated and Live Action.

They are typically awarded all at once, or in conjunction with their feature counterpart (re: Documentary Feature w/Documentary Short).

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Last year’s predictions were mostly on target and, overall, and gave me a small boost with my Oscar predictions, so my accuracy is stable. I’m still here with 96%+ on the line, so we’ll see what new trends emerge, what surprises ensue, and who takes home the gold this year.

And the Oscar goes to….

EPILOGUE

Every Oscar prediction brings something new, something fresh for introspection, and this year was no different. Another twelve months removed from my cancer diagnosis has brought me to a more confident place, still taking everything one check-up at a time, but buoyed by continued progress and encouraging medical exams. This past year also brought a renewed sense of my academic professional life with an unexpected gift: serving as interim Provost at a private university here in Chicago. My sense of self, along with the feeling of being welcome, has helped put lots of things about work and life balance into perspective in a good way, including movies.

For the first time in I don't know how long, I have colleagues asking me for movie recommendations, and my distribution list for blog posts has grown exponentially. I've had more hallway chats and impromptu discussions about actors, stories, and awards than I can remember, and the energy I get (and, hopefully, return) from those conversations has provided nourishment for my cinematic soul. I've written more movie reviews in the past year than ever before, and it is fun every time I return from the theater to sit down and compose another blog post.

Joyful work, for sure.

But it's also work that has sometimes been fraught with uncertainty. I've witnessed people, some in leadership positions, who are consistently indecisive, afraid to move forward for fear of repercussions, or who demonstrate an inability to articulate important values that "we, the people" are supposed to hold dear, to fight for even, and certainly to work to sustain. And I've discovered the dissonance of feeling simultaneously welcome and alienated because of others' uncertainty. It's disheartening to see the world today seemingly sliding backward in terms of cultural acceptance, individual sexuality, and personal freedom.

One of my favorite movie quotes this year comes from Conclave, when Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) surprises his Cardinals with these words as they gather to elect a new pope:

Our faith is a living thing precisely because it walks hand-in-hand with doubt.

If there was only certainty and no doubt, there would be no mystery.

And therefore no need for faith.

I've always seen myself as someone who has hope. The glass half full rather than empty. Maybe that translates to "faith," but I've always tried to see the possibilities rather than the disappointments (not that I haven't experienced both). This past year, in the midst of much positivity and affirmation, I also experienced considerable uncertainty and doubt.

Last year, I asked, "What was I made for?" This year, it's more like, "What are we doing here?"

Many of this year's most critically acclaimed movies upheld a kind of general malaise about human nature and the human spirit. Of the ten nominated movies, most ended on a sobering or thoughtful note. Not a bad thing (and not that I need a happy ending), but overall, less than uplifting conclusions, which may be a kind of statement about the state of the world at this moment.

Those films that faded to black with more positive final frames - Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Wicked - still left lingering questions of doubt and uncertainty, though I would rather leave the theater and think about possibilities for days than go home enveloped by an attitude of despair. If I never see Nosferatu again, it'll be just fine. And Elphaba may have defied gravity at Wicked's climax, but we know that Part Two (scheduled for release later this year), doesn't end well. In short, I left the theater more often this past year with a sense of "Meh," rather than with the feeling, "That's why I love movies."

So I'm left wondering if this encroaching pessimism about the general state of cinema is me or the movies. This week, an Op Ed in the NYTimes's Arts section proclaimed, "American Beauty: An Oscar Winner Hasn't Aged Well." Huh? Has Easy Rider aged well? Rebel Without a Cause? Casablanca? Even Birth of a Nation merits some discussion, if only to see how certain (even egregious) political and social themes have evolved and changed over time. I showed those movies thirty years ago when teaching film courses, and I always provided historical context.

I still recall students rolling their eyes over the budding romance between Natalie Wood and James Dean in Rebel and some not-so-quiet snickering when Bogart told Bergman, "We'll always have Paris." Hell, I even remember a very heated discussion about Robert Redford's love for Meryl Streep in Out of Africa, and the movie was only ten years old.

Have we lost the ability to appreciate cinema for its contributions to our understanding of the world and its history? Or are we canceling the past in order to wallow in contemporary angst and injustice? I've often written that, for me, movies provide the opportunity to be transported to other places and times so to get a glimpse of something new and different. But does that mean everything must be glum and depressing? Are we living in an age of no hope and little faith?

After considering this question for weeks, I came upon another great artist who provided inspiration: Canadian poet and singer-songwriter Leonard Cohen, who once wrote, "There's a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in."

Ah, yes. Light. Whether it's the one at the end of the tunnel, the backlight on Dylan as he mounts his motorcycle at the end of A Complete Unknown, or the slivering ray that shines through the Vatican's stained glass in Conclave, I need to see that, in the midst of a flawed, imperfect and desperate world, there is still radiance and a reason to move forward.

I suppose, like Dylan, I just need to "catch a spark," so I'll probably keep searching for it at the movie theater. And like Bob (though not in the same iconic way), I refuse to be anything other than me, which I am certain sometimes creates its own layer of personal skepticism and self-doubt, and might make me appear out of sync with current trends in box office favorites. I doubt I'll ever get on the Marvel Comics bandwagon.

Years ago, I interviewed for a job and was answering various questions, when my future boss stopped, looked at me and said, "You just refused to be pigeon-holed, don't you?" I smiled.

That's right. Just let me be. And I'll be...whatever it is you don't want me to be.

It's clear that movies: how we watch them ( streaming v. theater ), how we see them ( use of AI ), understand and acknowledge their significance ( impact of social media ) - is a-changin', though the wheel is clearly still in spin.

Hmm. Change. Uncertainty. Imperfection. Hope. That's why I'll keep going to see movies in a theater. Something about those auditorium lights dimming and the silver screen lighting up that still gives me a sense of anticipation and optimism - even hope - of what lies ahead.

And in a world of doubt and uncertainty, we can use all the light we can get... especially if/when it's all the light we cannot see.

See you at the movies.

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END CREDITS

*"Blowin' in the Wind," Original Music and Lyrics by Bob Dylan, 1962. (Additional lyrics, MaryAnn Janosik, copyright 2025).

Special thanks to Lyra Alley for helping with the recording of "Hopin' For a Win."