MJ's View: How might the Golden Globes, SAG Noms - and California Wildfires - Impact Oscar?

Well, that was fun - last week's usually uninspired, often tedious, generally unimpactful Golden Globe awards. First-time host, comedienne (do we still distinguish genders among stand-up comics?) Nikki Glaser, blasted out of the shoot with a sharp, stinging and very funny opening monologue to kick off the January 5 ceremony. Among my favorites:

"The legendary Harrison Ford is here tonight. I was actually talking to Harrison backstage and after he gave me his drink order, I said, 'Would you rather work with Zendaya or Ariana?' And he said, 'Indica.' We're going to find him some, so he has a good time tonight."

Then she teased actor Glen Powell for his hotness: 

"Glen Powell, what a year you've had. Oh, my God, Glen, you were in everything: Twisters, Hit Man, my head when I'm having sex with my boyfriend. Thank you so much for the assist. I'll see you tonight."

Finally, she commented on Ben Affleck:

"Tonight, we celebrate the best of film and hold space for television." Then she listed a few of the nominated films and performances, including Wicked, Queer, Nightbitch. "These are not just words Ben Affleck yells after he orgasms. These are some of the incredible movies nominated tonight."

Put her on a long-term contract and maybe even think about offering her the Oscar gig next year. Her remarks were timely, biting but not bitter, and risque-appropriate for TV. Most importantly, her remarks did not detract from the awards festivities and she managed to keep the show moving. No small task and accomplished beautifully, especially after last year's fiasco host, comedian Jo Koy. How bad was Koy? So bad that there was serious consideration of not having a host at all.

Speaking of not having a host, I may start campaigning to remove the silly presenter banter that was especially lame (again) this year. Kate Hudson and Mindy Kaling arguing about whose "presence" was best represented in their lines? Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley's faux cat fight about who was more beautiful per their Substance characters? Vin Diesel... well, just Vin's appearance was sufficient. No need to share private jokes with Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson that no one else understands. You get the idea.

While I understand and appreciate the need - and tradition - for presenters, it might be helpful, in the interest of time and maintaining audience interest, to eliminate the superfluous chatter and amateur bits by cutting straight to the chase announcing the nominees. Just a thought.

Now, about the Globes' potential impact on the Oscar nominations, which have just been postponed (the nominations announcement) from Friday, January 17 to Sunday, January 19* to give members more time to vote, given the ongoing wildfires in southern California. I get granting more time for Academy members to vote in light of the recent disaster, but I can't help but ask, "If you just lost everything in an environmental catastrophe, would voting for the next Best Picture be a priority?" Just wondering.

As I've said in previous blog posts, the impact of any award prior to the Oscars - Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, Independent Spirit - are mostly speculative and never definitive. None is a better, more accurate predictor overall of the Oscars. Movie awards stats are now as abundant as the MLB and generally less predictive of Oscar outcomes. In the past, it was a pretty safe bet that the Best Director and Best Picture would match. Not so much in the 21st century. Globe winners might generate interest in a performance not previously identified as "award-worthy" by critics: think Madonna winning a Globe in the Musical/Comedy category for Evita, then being snubbed by the Academy for an Oscar nom.

The SAG and BAFTA's have their own sets of stats, with the most prominent being that actors who don't get a SAG or BAFTA nomination almost never win an Oscar. There are, of course, exceptions to all of these and thus very few certainties when making final Oscar calls. There is always the "unintended" wild card that can turn the tide - Russell Crowe's angry meltdown at the 2002 BAFTA's His acceptance speech was cut due to time constraints and Crowe let fly with a string of expletives that were picked up by a stage mic. This unfortunate slip, which happened two weeks before the Oscars and days before Academy voting closed, supposedly cost him the Best Actor Oscar for A Beautiful Mind. The award subsequently to Denzel Washington after Crowe had literally swept the awards circuit.

Last year, Bradley Cooper's critically acclaimed Maestro was sabotaged by social media comments that Cooper's use of a prosthetic nose to better resemble composer Leonard Bernstein was, in fact, playing into anti-semitic stereotypes. Note that the film's release unfortunately coincided with the October 7 Hamas attacks. What initially appeared as a strong, positive reception for Cooper's film became, instead, a defense of Cooper's directorial vision that led to interviews/endorsements from Bernstein's children, OpEd's ad nauseum about Cooper's latent anti-semitism, and on and on. What was - and is - a masterful and creative piece of movie-making got lost in the awards season shuffle and buried its chances for any meaningful recognition.

Anyway, as you should know by now, the Globes separate drama from comedy in both film and television award categories (even though they don't separate supporting actor/actress categories or original from adapted screenplay - go figure). So every year there's a running discussion about which actors from the comedy category will make the cut when the SAG, BAFTA and Oscars don't distinguish between the two. The longstanding assumption is that drama overshadows (notice how I didn't use the word "trump") comedy, so it's harder for what might be identified as a comedic performance to be considered as good as a dramatic one.

This year, in both the Best Actress and Best Picture categories, the Golden Globes separation of comedy from drama may have more of an impact than usual. Looking at this year's nominations for Best Actress, Musical or Comedy, the Globes included the following (winner indicated w/*):

Musical/Comedy Drama

Amy Adams, Nightbitch Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl Cynthia Erivo, Wicked Angelina Jolie, Maria

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Mikey Madison, Anora Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

*Demi Moore, The Substance *Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Zendaya, Challengers Kate Winslet, Lee

Three days later, the SAG award nominations for Best Performance by a Female Actor contained these names:

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Granted, Emilia Pérez and The Substance are not traditional musicals or comedies, but it is very unusual to see four nominees from the musical/comedy category move to the more general - and typically drama-heavy - lead female actor shortlist. Adding to the uniqueness of the SAG list is the elimination of two major powerhouses, Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman. Though Jolie's turn as opera diva Maria Callas in the eponymously titled film was an early frontrunner, she had pretty much faded from serious contention by the time the Globes aired, but Kidman was still the favorite to take the award in the dramatic category. Ditto Tilda Swinton, whose performance in Pedro Almodovar's first English-language film, The Room Next Door, was all the movie buzz during the spring and summer film festival season.

Fernanda Torres' win in the Lead Female Actor, Drama may have been more of a nod by the Golden Globes Foundation (formerly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association), to an otherwise overlooked international actor, but her omission for a SAG nomination raises questions about the strength of her performance going forward. Can Jolie and/or Kidman recoup their SAG snubs and garner an Oscar nom? Time will tell, but I'd place money on Kidman's brave tour de force as an aging corporate techno-whiz whose personal life and career are almost destroyed by her affair with a younger male intern against Jolie's stilted, lip-synced posing as opera icon Callas. We shall see who, if either, carries greater clout among the Academy's 10,000 members.

The other potentially interesting shift could come in the Best Picture category which, since it's expansion to ten nominee slots, has generally included more box office blockbusters (re: big, action movies) than in the past. However, this year's sole entry from this genre may be Dune: Part Two, director's Denis Villeneuve's widely acclaimed second installment of the sci-fi classic. Gladiator II, despite the forced "Glicked" hybrid that attempted to (but didn't) repeat last year's Barbenheimer phenomenon, seems to have mostly faded from awards consideration, save Denzel Washington's diminishing chances as a supporting actor nom (he was not among SAG's final five).

Among this year's up-to-ten Best Picture nominees, four of the five contenders from the Globes musical/comedy category are likely to appear, including Anora, A Real Pain, The Substance and Wicked. That's not to say that the fifth nominee, Challengers, won't make the Oscar's final ten because it continues to receive accolades from film society's around the country. It's a longshot, but still not out of the race just yet.

That last thing I'll say about the Globes this year and their possible effect on the upcoming Oscar nominations is the recognition of female actors (notice the gender distinction here) who, after careers that have spanned thirty to forty years, are finally being recognized for their work. Pamela Anderson, previously known for that iconic one-piece red swimsuit she rocked for years on the TV series Baywatch and for the infamous sex tape she made with ex-husband Tommy Lee (of Motley Crue fame), and Demi Moore, the self-professed "popcorn" actress associated with Brat Pack films like St. Elmo's Fire and for potter's wheel foreplay in Ghost, as well as for her tabloid-centric marriage to the actor Bruce Willis (and later, her connubial pairing with the much-younger actor Ashton Kutcher), were both first-time nominees for any acting award this year. Both were recognized by the Globes and, subsequently, by SAG (this being important as it is from their acting peers).

But it is Moore's powerful and poignant acceptance speech after her Globe win that may be the tipping point here. I've often said that acceptance speeches are as important, if not more, than the win itself. The world, including industry colleagues and acting peers, is watching, and one's composure, gratitude, and authenticity are all on display with every opened award envelope. No one wants to see an ingrate receive a trophy and make a mockery of the whole Academy process. Though some surprise, nervousness and slips are expected, the overall message given by an award recipient can determine how far they go toward Oscar.

Last year's Best Supporting Actor, Robert Downey, Jr.,. is a great example of how to work the awards circuit with grace and panache. Given Downey's trademark insouciance and biting wit, he was able to master the art of combining self-deprecation with humility and gratitude. He never once forgot to thank his wife Susan or to acknowledge (sometimes with appropriate humor) his many missteps (including stints in rehab) that brought him to this memorable career high. Conversely, Eddie Murphy's initial surge toward that same award for 2006's Dreamgirls turned sour when he appeared to project a sense of "entitlement" each time his name was announced as a winner. By the time Oscar night rolled around, Alan Arkin's quiet humility and presence at every awards ceremony and luncheon was rewarded with Oscar gold. Murphy's Dreamgirls co-star, Jennifer Hudson, maintained her awards season surge and received the supporting actress Oscar, mostly because she never seemed to expect the recognition.

So there you have it. It's the necessary combination of humility and humor, of genuineness and gratitude, of sustained consistency throughout the long movie awards season that may yield Oscar victory. For nominees, it's a long and busy journey. And it is "work." Still, there are lots of obstacles and opportunities along the way and, though those of us who follow, watch, and analyze all things cinematic keep looking for the magic formula to predict what will happen on Oscar night, there's always a bit of mystery and a sense of the unexpected that keeps us intrigued. You never know what kind of upset might happen.

That said, the one category that has been very consistent so far this year has been Lead Performance by a Male Actor, so plan to see Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Colman Domingo, and Ralph Fiennes recognized on January 19 (or whenever the Oscar nominations are finally announced). The fifth spot will likely go to Daniel Craig, but you never know.

Oh, and Kieran Culkin will get a nomination for supporting actor for A Real Pain. What will be interesting is how the Best Director category shapes up, especially as the DGA and PGA nominations are finalized. As in years past, some of the screenplays may be ineligible, depending on the writer's membership in the WGA. So maybe a bit more diversity there.

Besides that, who knows? An unanticipated academy surprise, or something else? The added layer of concern regarding the course and duration of the wildfires ravaging the Los Angeles area could have an even more profound impact on the remainder of this awards season.

What I am hoping for is continued recognition for women who take chances on roles and who are willing to explore deeper and more profound themes about the female experience, including sexuality, aging, you name it. For me, 2024 held the promise that we've only just scratched the surface on going where no woman has gone before, and I can't wait to see what happens next.

Meantime, coming next are my reviews of some very different films about women, including The Last Showgirl and Hard Truths. Stay tuned.

*As of January 13, the Oscar nominations announcement was postponed (again) until January 23. The Oscar telecast, though subject to change, is still scheduled for Sunday, March 2.